Relationship between Road Environment and Road Traffic Crashes in Metropolitan Lagos: A Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between road environment and road crashes in metropolitan Lagos, Nigeria, to assess the contribution of road factors to crash occurrence. Ten years (2013-2022) crash data was obtained from Federal Road Safety Corps and plotted with ArcGIS tools to determine the black spot before further locational data were collected. Land use, road condition, crash time, road geometry, and traffic calming attributes of the road were assessed using a multiple linear regression model. The study revealed that among the road environment parameters, traffic management had the most significant impact at 18.2%, followed by road condition at 7.98%, road geometry at 8.9%, time at 4.21%, land use at 1.3%, and road type at 1.2%, and all the parameters are significant at 0.05 level of significant. The model revealed that road factors explained 51.4% of the variation in road crash occurrence. The study concludes that the roles of traffic calming/management, road conditions, road geometry, and time in influencing the likelihood of road crashes are critical to achieving safer roads in the metropolitan area of Lagos. It is recommended that traffic calming and improving traffic management strategies be planned to enhance a safer road traffic system.